Oh, Average.

Saturday, April 18. The dashboard thermometers on all of those mall-shopping, car-pooling, mulch-fetching vehicles scurrying about the NY metropolitan area dallied with the numerals 8 and 0. Today, April 20, those same digital snippets will be lucky to begin with a 5. The moral of the story is, there is hardly any such thing as an average day.

Tales that begin, "It was an average day in ____, just like any other", are cheating the reader out of the critical texture that makes the tale worth telling.

There is certainly no such thing as an average person.

When parents or teachers describe a child as an "average" student, they're being lazy or hiding something.

And so on.

The law of averages is an expedient. Average anything simply provides a snapshot to those whose inquiry is limited by an absence of time, need or curiosity. No detail. No grain.

Synonyms for average? Normal. Conventional. Typical. Boring.

Average bugs me, if you didn't guess already. (Keep in mind that I am not consulting a dictionary in the writing of this post. I am writing what I think and feel.)

That's why I love the idea of the VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Index. It's a measure of the volatility one can expect in the stock options world.

I don't mean to say that I really understand the underlying math or the machinations of options trading. I just like the idea that the VIX seems to be a more honest means of evaluating what things like April weather in the Northeast hold in store.

Why not an M (for meteorological) VIX on the 6 o'clock weather? Or an EduVIX for measuring student performance? Maybe they're already out there (probably in Las Vegas, the probabilistic center of the universe.)

Our seemingly natural tendency to identify the average in everything is understandable if you subscribe to the notion that people need something they can expect in all aspects of their lives. If it's April 20th in New York, four graders who tend to read at an (x.x) grade level should wear a sweater against the average high temperature of xx degrees.

Slicing it finer, they know when to leave home for their four block walk because it takes an average amount of time to traverse the distance factoring in stoplights, distractions from friends and general dawdling. Putting numbers on such things can get you federal funding for a traffic volume study.

Having determined what the average child prefers to eat, the school lunch will provide a form of that, based on what kids who bring their lunch bring on average, and within constraints set out by oversight authorities that know what the average 10 year-old body needs to function. Hence, the insane popularity of Yellow American and Bologna on White.

Of course, some averages are truly telling. Being able to produce a base hit one out of three times when facing 95 mile per hour pitches will get you into the Baseball Hall of Fame. In that case, average is a real barometer of difficulty. I get that.

I just feel the need to squint when "average" is applied to things that should not so reducible. That makes life smoother, less textured. Like retirement in Florida. Years pass by unnoticed. Fluctuations are flattened. Variations vanish.

I like a visual, emotional, intellectual VIX to keep me in the moment, on my toes. Admittedly, there are times when such a state of affairs makes it difficult to rest easy. But I would rather face up to the real-time roller coaster of real life before I rest in peace.

Why Not China?

As the saying goes, "You can grow up to become anything you want."

OK. Does that not apply to nations? If we were really sincere about spreading the word on opportunity, would that not be the case?

Or does it come with a set of pre-conditions?

IF you do business the way we do it here in the USA, and IF you adhere to the methodologies we employ to select those who govern and IF you learn...English, THEN you can grow up to be anything you want to be.

The current Gee, 20! confab is the latest attempt on the part of the ROW (Rest Of World) to confound that rubric. The Australians stand a good chance of illustrating the point. Take their blended red wines, or rather drink them.

By judiciously combining the best of shiraz, cabernet, zinfandel, merlot, even viognier, in perfect proportion, an appealing experience results. Each component has distinct characteristics that contribute to a pleasing compromise, in the best sense of the word.

And so it can be with geo-political influence. Perhaps the epoch of superpowers is passing in favor of a global community. Or maybe China is the next Tiger Woods of planetary pre-eminence. Again, work harder, study more, harness the statistical advantage of fecundity (as Thomas Friedman quoted in "The World is Flat" in China, if you're one in a million, there are 1,300 people just like you. It's now more like 1,450.)

So maybe the epoch of THIS superpower is passing. So what? Are we insecure about the next Number One abandoning everything we've done? Human nature isn't that bankrupt. The world will take what works and change what doesn't. Of course it won't be smooth, and it won't be pretty. The simple fact that our glorious revolution has still left too many people out is evidence that the sculpture isn't finished. That doesn't mean passing the torch must be accompanied by upheaval, violence, cataclysm or shame.

To be fair, the Chinese culture(s) were flourishing thousands of years before Columbus staked Ferdy & Isa's claim. For a number of reasons, they took a break. (See Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1500-2000.) Or looked elsewhere. They mixed. They matched. They are currently giving a historically flawed, but theoretically viable model a try. They have listened more than they get credit for and have retained more than our comfy zone allows. And they work hard, study hard and are learning to like themselves. So maybe they get a shot.

The one thing we as a nation should try to avoid is an indignant response to China's or anyone else's ascension. That is just not cricket, to use a popular term coined by another former torch-bearer. Chance's are, the good 'ol US of A has a few more 20 win seasons left. We need to win over the current 20 to let that happen.

(Photo by Andrew Testa for the New York Times)